Independiente (Ecu) (@2.87) vs Corinthians (@2.4)
25-09-2019

Our Prediction:

Corinthians will win

Independiente (Ecu) – Corinthians Match Prediction | 25-09-2019 20:30

Having seen off Argentine champions Racing Club, Deportivo Lara, Wanderers and Fluminense, Timaos road to this point of the competition hasnt been an easy one but theyll now be looking to go on and claim the trophy. Whilst Corinthians will be disappointed to have lost their 14 match unbeaten streak in a 1-0 defeat to Fluminense over the weekend, attention has been on Thursdays game for quite some time and the side come into it with confidence high.

The Ecuadorians managed to reach the final of the Copa Libertadores back in 2016 and are now itching to reach another continental final, having seen off Union de Santa Fe, Universidad Catolica, Caracas and Independiente to reach this point. Meanwhile, far from one of the continents big hitters, Independiente del Valle are defying the odds to make waves on the continental scene once again.

Up against an Independiente outfit that simply cannot find any kind of rhythm, were more than happy to back the hosts to pick up the win, with a 1-0 margin of victory looking to be on the cards. Corinthians have turned their home into a real fortress, also winning 4 of their last 5 games as hosts in the Libertadores in addition to their current hot streak on their own patch.

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Historical Precedents

Indeed, Independiente del Valle tend to do most of their good work on home soil and havent won any of their last 5 Copa Sudamericana ties on the road, leaving their prospects looking bleak in Sao Paulo. Nonetheless, the visitors will know they face a huge task in defeating such a powerhouse over two legs and confidence cannot be too high coming into this away leg.

Ultimately, this is a match and tie Corinthians really should be winning. Itd be quite something if the visitors were to reach the final and the hosts will want to avoid what would be an embarrassing defeat. They have far greater resources than Independiente del Valle and on paper, they appear a far stronger side in terms of quality.

The team led by Fabio Carille first played a goalless draw away at Milonarios before beating Venezuelan Deportivo Lara 2-0 at home a month ago. Independiente sit second in the group after clinching three points from two opening rounds. A win here would see them overtake the Brazilian outfit at the top of the standings, but getting one will be quite a challenging task given Corinthians form.

Unbeaten in 11 home matches, of which theyve won 7, Fabio Carilles troops are performing in a very consistent manner on their own patch and that has them looking overwhelming favourites to win the match. Typically very powerful as hosts, Corinthians will be assured of their ability to get the job done this Thursday and edging ahead in the tie is very clearly the aim.

Fabio Carilles troops have been a powerful force for well over a year now lifting the Campeonato Paulista and Serie A title last season and having retained the former this year. The hosts didnt contest the Libertadores last season, but in their current condition look set to be amongst the contenders this year and confidence is certainly high in the camp having already defeat Independiente in Buenos Aires as well as winning 6 of their last 7 home games.

Independiente vs Corinthians Match Preview and Predictions

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You can back the Under 2.5 goals FT bet as a banker at 1.44. This, combined with the importance of the third-round tie with Corinthians, suggests we should we in for a low-scoring contest here. The hosts play very tight under Ariel Holan. None of last six games they played in all competitions saw three or more goals. Their goal difference in Copa Libertadores is 1-1 after two rounds.

If the visitors could pick up a victory here then theyd move up into a qualification spot, but in their current state that isnt something that really looks like happening. Independiente have been very inconsistent in recent weeks across all competitions, winning 3 and losing 4 of their last 7, leaving them in a fight for a Libertadores spot domestically and on the brink of elimination of the competition this year.

All things considered, backing Corinthians to win to nil looks the best way to play in this one as far as the betting is concerned and is exactly where our money is going. They dont tend to hammer teams but are defensively solid and having kept a clean sheet in 4 of their last 5 home games and their last 3 Sudamericana home ties, we believe a 1-0 margin of home victory could well be on the cards.